Cyclone Keila Update

By staff - Thu Jun 09, 7:06 am

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Edited bystaff

According to latest latest report from Joint Typhoon Warning Centre & WMO (Global Forecasting System), Cyclone Keila has been formed. Direct impact on Oman for the next 3 days would be minimal.
JTWC Report
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 18.7N 69.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 082032Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 69.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 19.1N
69.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 69.8E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 082028Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE ALSO INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION CURVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND EQUATOR WARD OUTFLOW HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE. MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE (MSLP) AT MUMBAI, INDIA IS 1000 MB, A 2 MB DROP IN THE PAST
24 HOURS. A NEARBY SHIP REPORT MEASURED 1000 MB MSLP AS WELL. THE
LLCC IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY, AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28-33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 999 MB. DUE TO DECREASING PRESSURES, PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION, AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.